China CNY

China NBS General PMI

影响:
低的

Latest Release:

Surprise:
CNY0.7
实际的:
50.2
预报: 49.5
Previous/Revision:
51.4
Period: 4月 2025

Next Release:

预报:
Period: 5月 2025
它衡量什么?
中国国家统计局综合PMI衡量中国制造业和非制造业部门的经济健康状况。通过评估新订单、生产活动、库存水平、供应商交货时间和就业等组件来提供业务状况的洞察,PMI读数高于50表示扩张,低于50表示收缩,反映全国范围的情况。
发布频率
中国NBS综合PMI每月发布一次,通常作为最终数据发布,并于下个月的第一天公布。
交易者为何关注?
交易者密切关注中国NBS综合PMI,因为它反映了全球最大经济体之一的经济活动和商业信心,直接影响全球金融市场。高于预期的PMI往往会导致诸如人民币等货币的看涨反应,并可能对股票市场产生积极影响,而较低的读数可能会引发看跌情绪。
它来自哪里?
中国NBS综合PMI来源于对中国各类企业的采购经理进行的调查。这涉及通过加权系统使用扩散指数评估诸多商业条件,受访经理提供关于经济因素与上个月相比变化的见解。
描述
PMI数据对于经济分析至关重要;初步数据反映早期评估,而最终数据提供更准确的反映,通常包含全面的数据修订。由于其及时性,初步数据常常引发即时的市场响应,而最终数据可以调整预期或验证趋势。这个特定的PMI采用月度环比报告方法,强调短期经济变化,帮助交易者感知即刻的经济变化而非长期结构性变化。
附加说明
该指标是经济表现的同步量度,与实时的商业周期紧密对齐。通常与来自其他国家的类似PMI报告进行比较,强调中国对全球贸易动态和经济趋势的影响。
对货币和股票的影响
高于预期:人民币看涨,股票看涨。 低于预期:人民币看跌,股票看跌。 鹰派语调:暗示更高的利率或通胀担忧,通常对人民币有利,但由于更高的借贷成本对股票不利。

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the ‘Actual’ value differs enough from the forecast or if the ‘Previous’ value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the ‘Actual’ deviates from the forecast or there’s a notable revision to the ‘Previous’ value.

Medium Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there’s an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency.

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
50.2
49.5
51.4
0.7
51.4
50.8
51.1
0.6
51.1
50.5
50.1
0.6
50.1
52
52.2
-1.9
52.2
50.9
50.8
1.3
50.8
51
50.8
-0.2
50.8
50.6
50.4
0.2
50.4
50
50.1
0.4
50.1
49.9
50.2
0.2
50.2
50.1
50.5
0.1
50.5
50.7
51
-0.2
51
51.5
51.7
-0.5
51.7
52.4
52.7
-0.7
52.7
53
50.9
-0.3
50.9
51
50.9
-0.1
50.9
50.4
50.3
0.5
50.3
50.5
50.4
-0.2
50.4
51.7
50.7
-1.3
50.7
52.2
52
-1.5
52
52.6
51.3
-0.6
51.3
51
51.1
0.3
51.1
52
52.3
-0.9
52.3
52
52.9
0.3
52.9
54.2
54.4
-1.3
54.4
57.3
57
-2.9
57
55.1
56.4
1.9
56.4
53.7
52.9
2.7
52.9
46
42.6
6.9
42.6
49
47.1
-6.4
47.1
49.3
49
-2.2
49
50.8
50.9
-1.8
50.9
52
51.7
-1.1
51.7
50.6
52.5
1.1
52.5
55
54.1
-2.5
48.4
44
42.7
4.4
42.7
48.3
48.8
-5.6
48.8
49.9
51.2
-1.1
51.2
51.3
51
-0.1
51
52
52.2
-1
52.2
52.4
52.2
-0.2
52.2
50.5
50.8
1.7