China NBS General PMI

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Latest Release:

Surprise:

CNY0.7

Actual:

50.2

Forecast: 49.5

Previous/Revision:

51.4

Period: Apr 2025

Next Release:

Forecast:

Period: May 2025

What Does It Measure?

The China NBS General PMI measures the economic health of China's manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors. It provides insight into business conditions by assessing components such as new orders, production activity, inventory levels, supplier delivery times, and employment, with a PMI reading above 50 indicating expansion and below 50 indicating contraction, on a national scale.

Frequency

The China NBS General PMI is released monthly, typically as a final figure, and is published on the first day of the following month.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders pay close attention to the China NBS General PMI as it reflects economic activity and business sentiment in one of the world's largest economies, directly impacting global financial markets. A higher-than-expected PMI often leads to bullish reactions in currencies like the Chinese Yuan and can influence stock markets positively, while lower readings may trigger bearish sentiments.

What Is It Derived From?

The China NBS General PMI is derived from surveys conducted with purchasing managers across various businesses in China. This involves assessing numerous business conditions through a weighted system using diffusion indices, where the surveyed managers provide insights on changes in economic factors compared to the prior month.

Description

PMI data is crucial for economic analysis; preliminary readings indicate early assessments, while final figures offer more accurate reflections and usually include comprehensive data revisions. Preliminary data often elicit immediate market responses due to their timely nature, whereas final readings can adjust expectations or validate trends. This particular PMI utilizes the month-over-month reporting method to highlight short-term economic shifts, aiding traders in sensing immediate economic shifts as opposed to longer structural changes.

Additional Notes

This indicator acts as a coincident measure of economic performance, aligning closely with real-time business cycles. Comparisons are often made with similar PMI reports from other countries, underscoring China's influence on global trade dynamics and economic trends.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for the Chinese Yuan, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for the Chinese Yuan, Bearish for Stocks. Hawkish tone: Signaling higher interest rates or inflation concerns, is usually good for the Chinese Yuan but bad for Stocks due to higher borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the ‘Actual’ value differs enough from the forecast or if the ‘Previous’ value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the ‘Actual’ deviates from the forecast or there’s a notable revision to the ‘Previous’ value.

Medium Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there’s an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency.

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Apr 30, 2025	50.2	49.5	51.4	0.7
Mar 31, 2025	51.4	50.8	51.1	0.6
Mar 01, 2025	51.1	50.5	50.1	0.6
Jan 27, 2025	50.1	52	52.2	-1.9
Dec 31, 2024	52.2	50.9	50.8	1.3
Nov 30, 2024	50.8	51	50.8	-0.2
Oct 31, 2024	50.8	50.6	50.4	0.2
Sep 30, 2024	50.4	50	50.1	0.4
Aug 31, 2024	50.1	49.9	50.2	0.2
Jul 31, 2024	50.2	50.1	50.5	0.1
Jun 30, 2024	50.5	50.7	51	-0.2
May 31, 2024	51	51.5	51.7	-0.5
Apr 30, 2024	51.7	52.4	52.7	-0.7
Mar 31, 2024	52.7	53	50.9	-0.3
Mar 01, 2024	50.9	51	50.9	-0.1
Jan 31, 2024	50.9	50.4	50.3	0.5
Dec 31, 2023	50.3	50.5	50.4	-0.2
Nov 30, 2023	50.4	51.7	50.7	-1.3
Oct 31, 2023	50.7	52.2	52	-1.5
Sep 30, 2023	52	52.6	51.3	-0.6
Aug 31, 2023	51.3	51	51.1	0.3
Jul 31, 2023	51.1	52	52.3	-0.9
Jun 30, 2023	52.3	52	52.9	0.3
May 31, 2023	52.9	54.2	54.4	-1.3
Apr 30, 2023	54.4	57.3	57	-2.9
Mar 31, 2023	57	55.1	56.4	1.9
Mar 01, 2023	56.4	53.7	52.9	2.7
Jan 31, 2023	52.9	46	42.6	6.9
Dec 31, 2022	42.6	49	47.1	-6.4
Nov 30, 2022	47.1	49.3	49	-2.2
Oct 31, 2022	49	50.8	50.9	-1.8
Sep 30, 2022	50.9	52	51.7	-1.1
Aug 31, 2022	51.7	50.6	52.5	1.1
Jul 31, 2022	52.5	55	54.1	-2.5
May 31, 2022	48.4	44	42.7	4.4
Apr 30, 2022	42.7	48.3	48.8	-5.6
Mar 31, 2022	48.8	49.9	51.2	-1.1
Mar 01, 2022	51.2	51.3	51	-0.1
Jan 30, 2022	51	52	52.2	-1
Dec 31, 2021	52.2	52.4	52.2	-0.2
Nov 30, 2021	52.2	50.5	50.8	1.7