Italy HCOB Composite PMI

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Latest Release:

Big Surprise:

EUR-2.3

Actual:

47.7

Forecast: 50

Previous/Revision:

Period: Dec 2024

Next Release:

Forecast: 48

Period: Jan 2025

What Does It Measure?

The Italy HCOB Composite PMI measures the combined output and business activity in Italy's manufacturing and services sectors. It provides insights into production, new orders, employment, and prices, using key indicators such as a diffusion index with a value above 50 indicating expansion and below 50 suggesting contraction; it serves as a national indicator for Italy.

Frequency

The Composite PMI is released monthly, typically as a preliminary estimate in the first week of the month.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders pay attention to the Composite PMI as it offers vital clues about the health of Italy's economy, impacting financial markets such as currency and stock markets. Higher-than-expected PMI readings are bullish for the euro and Italian equities, signaling economic expansion, while lower readings can have bearish effects by indicating potential economic slowdown.

What Is It Derived From?

The Italy HCOB Composite PMI is derived from a survey of purchasing managers in the manufacturing and services sectors, with responses gauged on criteria such as output, new orders, and employment. The PMI uses a 50-point scale to calculate a diffusion index, where responses are weighted by sector importance in the economy.

Description

The Italy HCOB Composite PMI is released with both preliminary and final reports, where preliminary data is often subject to revisions based on more complete subsequent information. Preliminary PMI is released earlier and provides a timely snapshot that often prompts immediate market reactions, while the final PMI offers a more accurate look that may lead to market corrections in sentiment. Unlike other reporting methods, the PMI does not include MoM, QoQ, or YoY changes but indicates current economic conditions through a single point index comparison against the neutral 50 level.

Additional Notes

The Composite PMI is a leading economic measure that foreshadows changes in economic activity before they occur, making it crucial for assessing potential future conditions. It aligns with European and global PMI trends, providing a comparative outlook on Italy's economic standing relative to other regions.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for EUR, Bullish for Italian Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for EUR, Bearish for Italian Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the ‘Actual’ value differs enough from the forecast or if the ‘Previous’ value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the ‘Actual’ deviates from the forecast or there’s a notable revision to the ‘Previous’ value.

Medium Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there’s an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency.

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Dec 04, 2024	47.7	50	51	-2.3
Nov 06, 2024	51	49.8	49.7	1.2
Oct 03, 2024	49.7	50.1	50.8	-0.4
Sep 04, 2024	50.8	50.5	50.3	0.3
Aug 05, 2024	50.3	51.1	51.3	-0.8
Jul 03, 2024	51.3	51.8	52.3	-0.5
Jun 05, 2024	52.3	53.4	52.6	-1.1
May 06, 2024	52.6	52.4	53.5	0.2
Apr 04, 2024	53.5	50.7	51.1	2.8
Mar 05, 2024	51.1	51.5	50.7	-0.4
Feb 05, 2024	50.7	49.4	48.6	1.3
Jan 04, 2024	48.6	48.5	48.1	0.1
Dec 05, 2023	48.1	48	47	0.1
Nov 06, 2023	47	48.4	49.2	-1.4
Oct 04, 2023	49.2	48.7	48.2	0.5
Sep 05, 2023	48.2	49.1	48.9	-0.9
Aug 03, 2023	48.9	49.1	49.7	-0.2
Jul 05, 2023	49.7	50.5	52	-0.8
Jun 05, 2023	52	53.1	55.3	-1.1
May 04, 2023	55.3	54.4	55.2	0.9