Australia AUD

Australia Monthly CPI Indicator

Impact:
High

Latest Release:

Surprise:
0.1%
| AUD
Actual:
2.4%
Forecast: 2.3%
Previous/Revision:
2.4%
Period: Apr 2025

Next Release:

Forecast:
Period: May 2025
What Does It Measure?
The Australia Monthly CPI Indicator measures inflation by tracking changes in the prices of a basket of goods and services over time. This national indicator provides insights into consumer price trends and inflationary pressures, which are pivotal for economic policy assessments.
Frequency
The report is released monthly, and the figures provided are typically considered preliminary estimates available in the first week of the following month.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders closely watch the Australia Monthly CPI Indicator because it directly influences monetary policy decisions, affecting interest rates and economic forecasts. Positive or higher-than-expected results can be bullish for the Australian dollar (AUD) and equities due to the potential for interest rate hikes, while lower readings can have bearish implications.
What Is It Derived From?
The indicator is calculated by the Australian Bureau of Statistics using a comprehensive survey of pricing data from various retail outlets, service providers, and other relevant entities. This calculation involves weighting different components to reflect their importance in household consumption accurately.
Description
Preliminary estimates for the monthly CPI are based on early price collection and analysis, providing timely insights into inflation trends but carrying a degree of uncertainty due to possible revisions. Final CPI data offers a more accurate depiction and is derived from an expanded data set with additional validation, making it vital for adjusting economic forecasts. Financial markets tend to react strongly to preliminary data due to its immediate relevance, while final figures may lead to minor corrections or reinforce market trends. The Monthly CPI report focuses primarily on month-over-month changes, illustrating short-term inflation dynamics as opposed to year-over-year or quarter-over-quarter perspectives which provide broader structural insights.
Additional Notes
This indicator is considered coincident as it reflects current economic conditions similar to other pricing reports globally, such as the U.S. Consumer Price Index. Its relation to interest rates and economic health makes it a vital benchmark for evaluating the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary stance.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for AUD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for AUD, Bearish for Stocks. Hawkish tone: Signaling higher interest rates or inflation concerns, is usually good for the AUD but bad for Stocks due to higher borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the ‘Actual’ value differs enough from the forecast or if the ‘Previous’ value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the ‘Actual’ deviates from the forecast or there’s a notable revision to the ‘Previous’ value.

Medium Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there’s an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency.

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
2.4%
2.3%
2.4%
0.1%
2.4%
2.5%
2.5%
-0.1%
2.5%
2.6%
2.5%
-0.1%
2.5%
2.5%
2.3%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
0.1%
2.1%
2.3%
2.1%
-0.2%
2.1%
2.4%
2.7%
-0.3%
2.7%
2.8%
3.5%
-0.1%
3.5%
3.4%
3.8%
0.1%
3.8%
3.8%
4%
4%
3.8%
3.6%
0.2%
3.6%
3.4%
3.5%
0.2%
3.5%
3.4%
3.4%
0.1%
3.4%
3.5%
3.4%
-0.1%
3.4%
3.6%
3.4%
-0.2%
3.4%
3.7%
4.3%
-0.3%
4.3%
4.4%
4.9%
-0.1%
4.9%
5.2%
5.6%
-0.3%
5.6%
5.4%
5.2%
0.2%
5.2%
5.2%
4.9%
4.9%
5.2%
5.4%
-0.3%
5.4%
5.4%
5.5%
5.6%
6.1%
6.8%
-0.5%
6.8%
6.4%
6.3%
0.4%
6.3%
6.5%
6.8%
-0.2%
6.8%
7.1%
7.4%
-0.3%
7.4%
8%
8.4%
-0.6%
8.4%
7.6%
7.3%
0.8%
7.3%
7.3%
6.9%
6.9%
7.4%
7.3%
-0.5%
7.3%
7%
6.9%
0.3%