Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Latest Release:

Big Surprise:

CHF-4.9

CHF

Actual:

97.1

Forecast: 102

Previous/Revision:

103.2

Period: Apr 2025

Next Release:

Forecast:

Period: May 2025

What Does It Measure?

The KOF Leading Indicators index measures the future direction of the Swiss economy, specifically aiming to predict GDP growth over the next six months. It assesses various components like production, employment, and other sectors by compiling key indicators into a national index, where values above zero indicate economic expansion and below zero suggest contraction.

Frequency

This indicator is released monthly, providing preliminary estimates typically published in the last few days of the month.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the KOF Leading Indicators as it provides insights into the Swiss economy's upcoming performance, influencing decisions related to the Swiss franc (CHF) and Swiss stocks. A higher-than-expected reading is typically bullish for the CHF and equities due to anticipated economic growth, whereas a lower reading may lead to bearish sentiment.

What Is It Derived From?

The KOF Leading Indicators are derived from a broad range of economic data, including surveys of businesses and sectors that contribute to Switzerland's economic output. This index uses a composite calculation method, aligning numerous leading indicators from a variety of sectors into a single predictive value through standardized data modeling techniques.

Description

The KOF Leading Indicators provide a composite outlook based on early data, which can be subject to revisions as new information becomes available, a factor that can sometimes lead to adjustments in market sentiment. Markets often react more to the preliminary data due to its timely nature, with the potential for final data to adjust the initial reaction. The indicator is published on a month-over-month basis to reflect most recent economic trends without the need to eliminate seasonality like with year-over-year measures, though it's often evaluated alongside historical trends to gauge economic momentum accurately.

Additional Notes

The KOF Leading Indicators serve as a critical leading economic measure, helping forecast potential economic turning points before they appear in more conventional data. Its comprehensive nature allows for comparisons with other global leading indicators to assess external risk or influence on Switzerland's economic trajectory.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for CHF, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for CHF, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the ‘Actual’ value differs enough from the forecast or if the ‘Previous’ value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the ‘Actual’ deviates from the forecast or there’s a notable revision to the ‘Previous’ value.

Medium Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there’s an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency.

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Apr 30, 2025	97.1	102	103.2	-4.9
Mar 28, 2025	103.9	102.2	102.6	1.7
Feb 28, 2025	101.7	102	103	-0.3
Jan 30, 2025	101.6	100.2	99.6	1.4
Dec 30, 2024	99.5	101.1	102.9	-1.6
Nov 29, 2024	101.8	100	99.7	1.8
Oct 30, 2024	99.5	105	104.5	-5.5
Sep 30, 2024	105.5	102	105	3.5
Aug 30, 2024	101.6	100.6	100.6	1
Jul 30, 2024	101	102.5	102.7	-1.5
Jun 28, 2024	102.7	101	102.2	1.7
May 30, 2024	100.3	102.3	101.9	-2
Apr 30, 2024	101.8	102.1	100.4	-0.3
Mar 28, 2024	101.5	102	102	-0.5
Feb 29, 2024	101.6	102	102.5	-0.4
Jan 30, 2024	101.5	98.2	98	3.3
Dec 29, 2023	97.8	97	97.2	0.8
Nov 30, 2023	96.7	96.6	95.1	0.1
Oct 30, 2023	95.8	95	95.9	0.8
Sep 29, 2023	95.9	90.5	96.2	5.4
Aug 30, 2023	91.1	91.5	92.1	-0.4
Jul 28, 2023	92.2	90.5	90.7	1.7
Jun 30, 2023	90.8	90.9	91.4	-0.1
May 30, 2023	90.2	95.3	96.1	-5.1
Apr 28, 2023	96.4	98.1	99.2	-1.7
Mar 30, 2023	98.2	100.5	98.9	-2.3
Feb 28, 2023	100	98	97.4	2
Jan 30, 2023	97.2	93.3	91.5	3.9
Dec 30, 2022	92.2	90.5	89.2	1.7
Nov 30, 2022	89.5	91.3	90.9	-1.8
Oct 28, 2022	90.9	93.2	92.3	-2.3
Sep 30, 2022	93.8	84.5	93.5	9.3
Aug 30, 2022	86.5	89	90.5	-2.5
Jul 29, 2022	90.1	95.2	95.2	-5.1
Jun 30, 2022	96.9	96.3	97.7	0.6
May 30, 2022	96.8	102.3	103	-5.5
Apr 29, 2022	101.7	99.4	99.2	2.3
Mar 30, 2022	99.7	100.8	105.3	-1.1
Feb 28, 2022	105	108.5	107.2	-3.5
Jan 28, 2022	107.8	106.3	107.2	1.5
Dec 30, 2021	107	106.4	107.5	0.6
Nov 30, 2021	108.5	109	110.2	-0.5
Oct 29, 2021	110.7	108.2	111	2.5
Sep 30, 2021	110.6	110	113.5	0.6
Aug 30, 2021	113.5	125	130.9	-11.5
Jul 30, 2021	129.8	130	133.3	-0.2
Jun 30, 2021	133.4	144.7	143.7	-11.3
May 28, 2021	143.2	136	136.4	7.2
Apr 30, 2021	134	119.5	118	14.5
Mar 30, 2021	117.8	104.6	102.6	13.2
Feb 26, 2021	102.7	96.6	96.5	6.1
Jan 29, 2021	96.5	102	104.1	-5.5
Dec 30, 2020	104.3	100.5	103.7	3.8
Nov 30, 2020	103.5	101	106.3	2.5
Oct 30, 2020	106.6	107	110.1	-0.4
Sep 30, 2020	113.8	106	110.2	7.8
Aug 28, 2020	110.2	90	86	20.2
Jul 30, 2020	85.7	75	60.6	10.7
Jun 30, 2020	59.4	77	49.6	-17.6
May 29, 2020	53.2	70	59.7	-16.8
Apr 30, 2020	63.5	63.5	91.7
Mar 30, 2020	92.9	81.6	101.8	11.3
Feb 28, 2020	100.9	97.5	100.1	3.4
Jan 30, 2020	100.1	97	96.2	3.1
Dec 30, 2019	96.4	94.5	92.6	1.9
Nov 29, 2019	93	95	94.8	-2
Oct 30, 2019	94.7	93.9	93.1	0.8
Sep 30, 2019	93.2	96.2	95.5	-3
Aug 30, 2019	97	94.5	97	2.5
Jul 30, 2019	97.1	93	93.8	4.1
Jun 28, 2019	93.6	94.9	93.8	-1.3
May 29, 2019	94.4	95.9	96.2	-1.5
Apr 30, 2019	96.2	96.9	97.1	-0.7
Mar 29, 2019	97.4	93.9	93	3.5
Feb 28, 2019	92.4	95.4	96.2	-3
Jan 30, 2019	95	97	96.4	-2
Dec 28, 2018	96.3	98.7	98.9	-2.4
Nov 30, 2018	99.1	99.5	100.2	-0.4
Oct 30, 2018	100.1	100.6	102.3	-0.5
Sep 28, 2018	102.2	101	98.9	1.2
Aug 30, 2018	100.3	101.1	101.7	-0.8
Jul 30, 2018	101.1	101.5	101.3	-0.4
Jun 29, 2018	101.7	101	100	0.7
May 30, 2018	100	104.5	103.3	-4.5
Apr 30, 2018	105.3	105.5	105.1	-0.2
Mar 29, 2018	106	107.3	108.4	-1.3
Feb 28, 2018	108	106.2	107.6	1.8
Jan 30, 2018	106.9	110.9	111.4	-4
Dec 22, 2017	111.3	110.2	110.4	1.1
Nov 30, 2017	110.3	109.2	109.8	1.1
Oct 30, 2017	109.1	105.5	105.8	3.6
Sep 29, 2017	105.8	105.5	104.2	0.3
Aug 30, 2017	104.1	107	108	-2.9
Jul 28, 2017	106.8	106	105.8	0.8
Jun 30, 2017	105.5	102.5	102	3
May 30, 2017	101.6	106.2	106.3	-4.6
Apr 28, 2017	106	107.8	107.2	-1.8
Mar 30, 2017	107.6	106	106.9	1.6
Feb 28, 2017	107.2	102	102	5.2
Jan 30, 2017	101.7	103.3	102.1	-1.6
Dec 23, 2016	102.2	103.1	102.2	-0.9
Nov 30, 2016	102.2	104	103.9	-1.8
Oct 28, 2016	104.7	101.8	101.6	2.9
Sep 30, 2016	101.3	100.8	99.7	0.5
Aug 30, 2016	99.8	102	103.5	-2.2
Jul 29, 2016	102.7	101.3	102.6	1.4
Jun 30, 2016	102.4	102.8	101.8	-0.4
May 30, 2016	102.9	102.8	102.6	0.1
Apr 29, 2016	102.7	102.8	102.8	-0.1
Mar 30, 2016	102.5	101.9	102.6	0.6
Feb 29, 2016	102.4	98.8	100.4	3.6
Jan 29, 2016	100.3	96	96.8	4.3
Dec 23, 2015	96.6	99.1	97.3	-2.5
Nov 30, 2015	97.9	100.2	100.4	-2.3
Oct 30, 2015	99.8	100	100.4	-0.2
Sep 30, 2015	100.4	100.9	101.2	-0.5
Aug 31, 2015	100.7	99.5	100.4	1.2
Jul 30, 2015	99.8	90.3	89.8	9.5
Jun 30, 2015	89.7	93.6	92.7	-3.9
May 29, 2015	93.1	90	89.5	3.1