Germany HCOB Services PMI Final

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Latest Release:

Surprise:

EUR-0.1

EUR

Actual:

49.3

Forecast: 49.4

Previous/Revision:

51.6

Period: Dec 2024

Next Release:

Forecast: 51

Period: Jan 2025

What Does It Measure?

The Germany HCOB Services PMI Final measures the overall performance of the German services sector by assessing key areas such as business activity levels, new orders, employment, prices, and inventory changes. It is a national indicator derived from survey data of purchasing managers in the services industry, tracking changes in business conditions; a reading above 50 indicates an expansion, while below 50 signals contraction.

Frequency

Released monthly, this report is a revision of preliminary data and is typically published in the first week of the following month.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders monitor this index closely as it provides timely insight into the health of Germany's service sector, which is crucial for the overall economy. A higher or improving PMI can lead to bullish sentiments for the euro and German equities due to expectations of stronger economic activity, whereas a decline may have bearish implications.

What Is It Derived From?

The final PMI is derived from survey data collected from purchasing managers in the German services industry. The index employs a diffusion index methodology, where respondents indicate improvements, no change, or declines in key business activities, which are then weighted and combined to form the overall PMI reading.

Description

The Germany HCOB Services PMI Final refines initial estimates by incorporating more complete data sets, reducing the reliance on early responses. The preliminary data serve as an early indication and carry significant market impact due to their timeliness, often prompting immediate market reactions. Final data adjust initial sentiments by offering a more accurate depiction of the sector's health, potentially altering economic forecasts and market positions.

Additional Notes

As a leading economic indicator, the Services PMI provides early signals of economic trends and potential inflection points in the German economy. Its correlation with other European and global PMI reports allows for comparative economic analysis and assists in forecasting international business conditions.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for EUR, Bullish for German Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for EUR, Bearish for German Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the ‘Actual’ value differs enough from the forecast or if the ‘Previous’ value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the ‘Actual’ deviates from the forecast or there’s a notable revision to the ‘Previous’ value.

Medium Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there’s an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency.

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Dec 04, 2024	49.3	49.4	51.6	-0.1
Nov 06, 2024	51.6	51.4	50.6	0.2
Oct 03, 2024	50.6	50.6	51.2
Sep 04, 2024	51.2	51.4	52.5	-0.2
Aug 05, 2024	52.5	52	53.1	0.5
Jul 03, 2024	53.1	53.5	54.2	-0.4
Jun 05, 2024	54.2	53.9	53.2	0.3
May 06, 2024	53.2	53.3	50.1	-0.1
Apr 04, 2024	50.1	49.8	48.3	0.3
Mar 05, 2024	48.3	48.2	47.7	0.1
Feb 05, 2024	47.7	47.6	49.3	0.1
Jan 04, 2024	49.3	48.4	49.6	0.9
Dec 05, 2023	49.6	48.7	48.2	0.9
Nov 06, 2023	48.2	48	50.3	0.2
Oct 04, 2023	50.3	49.8	47.3	0.5
Sep 05, 2023	47.3	47.3	52.3
Aug 03, 2023	52.3	52	54.1	0.3
Jul 05, 2023	54.1	54.1	57.2
Jun 05, 2023	57.2	57.8	56	-0.6
May 04, 2023	56	55.7	53.7	0.3