France EUR

France Budget Balance

Impact:
Low

Latest Release:

Surprise:
EUR-10.1B
Actual:
€-40.3B
Forecast: €-30.2B
Previous/Revision:
€-17.3B
Period: Apr 2025

Next Release:

Forecast: €-48B
Period: May 2025
What Does It Measure?
The France Budget Balance measures the difference between the government's revenues and expenditures over a specified period, assessing fiscal health through the lens of budgetary surpluses or deficits. This national indicator reflects government borrowing needs, influences fiscal policy planning, and key indicators include total revenues collected and total government spending.
Frequency
The France Budget Balance report is released monthly, typically during the first week of the month, and usually reflects preliminary data that are later subject to revisions.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders closely monitor the France Budget Balance because it impacts the country's fiscal credibility and borrowing costs, influencing the euro's strength in foreign exchange markets. A larger-than-expected deficit may lead to bearish pressures on the EUR or higher yields on French government bonds, whereas a surplus or smaller deficit can be bullish for the currency.
What Is It Derived From?
The France Budget Balance is derived by reconciling the government’s actual receipts from sources like taxes and fees against its expenditures on public services, welfare, and debt interest payments. Data is compiled from government financial operations and accounting records to calculate the net balance.
Description
Preliminary data for the France Budget Balance provides an early estimate of fiscal health and is often relied upon by markets for timely insights, although it may be revised as more complete data become available. Preliminary figures give traders immediate information that can shift market expectations, while final data offers a more refined view but is less impactful due to delays. The report often uses MoM analysis to capture fiscal fluctuations and changes tied to economic activity levels, offering insights into short-term fiscal trends.
Additional Notes
The France Budget Balance serves as a lagging indicator, reflecting past government financial activity that might indicate future trends when analyzed alongside leading indicators such as GDP growth. It is comparable to other fiscal reports from nations across the EU, where coordination of fiscal policies can affect broader economic trends.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for EUR, Bullish for French Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for EUR, Bearish for French Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or economic support, is usually bad for the EUR but good for French Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the ‘Actual’ value differs enough from the forecast or if the ‘Previous’ value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the ‘Actual’ deviates from the forecast or there’s a notable revision to the ‘Previous’ value.

Medium Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there’s an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency.

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
€-40.3B
€-30.2B
€-17.3B
€-10.1B
€-17.3B
€-22.3B
€-156.3B
€5B
€-156.3B
€-175B
€-172.5B
€18.7B
€-172.5B
€-162B
€-157.4B
€-10.5B
€-157.39B
€-185B
€-173.78B
€27.61B
€-173.78B
€-190B
€-171.9B
€16.22B
€-171.9B
€-188B
€-156.9B
€16.1B
€-156.9B
€-175B
€-103.5B
€18.1B
€-103.5B
€-130B
€-113.5B
€26.5B
€-113.5B
€-115B
€-91.6B
€1.5B
€-91.6B
€-60B
€-52.8B
€-31.6B
€-52.8B
€-52B
€-44B
€-0.8B
€-44.03B
€-54.4B
€-25.74B
€10.37B
€-25.74B
€-27B
€-173.26B
€1.26B
€-173.26B
€-173B
€-197.97B
€-0.26B
€-197.97B
€-185B
€-177.71B
€-12.97B
€-177.71B
€-194B
€-186.12B
€16.29B
€-186.12B
€-187B
€-187.93B
€0.88B
€-187.9B
€-185.2B
€-168.99B
€-2.7B
€-168.99B
€-140B
€-116.18B
€-28.99B
€-116.18B
€-100B
€-107.22B
€-16.18B
€-107.22B
€-92B
€-83.71B
€-15.22B
€-83.71B
€-74B
€-54.72B
€-9.71B
€-54.72B
€-38B
€-50.32B
€-16.72B
€-50.32B
€-42.2B
€-21.15B
€-8.12B
€-21.15B
€-150B
€-151.47B
€128.85B
€-151.5B
€-157B
€-159.3B
€5.5B
€-159.3B
€-145B
€-143.22B
€-14.3B
€-143.22B
€-150B
€-146.61B
€6.78B
€-149.9B
€-105B
€-131.22B
€-44.9B
€-131.22B
€-72B
€-76.08B
€-59.22B
€-76.08B
€-83B
€-82.3B
€6.92B
€-82.3B
€-70B
€-67.32B
€-12.3B
€-67.32B
€-39B
€-38.33B
€-28.32B
€-38.33B
€-33B
€-37.63B
€-5.33B
€-37.63B
€-58B
€-15.93B
€20.37B
€-15.93B
€-60B
€-170.73B
€44.07B
€-170.73B
€-186B
€-178.1B
€15.27B
€-181.02B
€-190B
€-171.62B
€8.98B
€-171.6B
€-173B
€-175.1B
€1.4B
€-175.12B
€-176B
€-178.05B
€0.88B
€-178.04B
€-174B
€-166.64B
€-4.04B
€-166.64B
€-156B
€-131.29B
€-10.64B
€-131.29B
€-124B
€-118.79B
€-7.29B
€-118.79B
€-104B
€-91.37B
€-14.79B
€-91.37B
€-98B
€-60.07B
€6.63B
€-60.07B
€-40B
€-47.47B
€-20.07B
€-47.47B
€-38B
€-21.86B
€-9.47B
€-21.86B
€-27B
€-178.1B
€5.14B
€-178.1B
€-170B
€-176.85B
€-8.1B
€-176.85B
€-166B
€-159.85B
€-10.85B
€-159.9B
€-132B
€-161.6B
€-27.9B
€-161.6B
€-145B
€-165.7B
€-16.6B
€-165.69B
€-140B
€-151.04B
€-25.69B
€-151.04B
€-128B
€-124.88B
€-23.04B
€-124.88B
€-105B
€-117.85B
€-19.88B
€-117.9B
€-107B
€-92.1B
€-10.9B
€-92.1B
€-68B
€-52.5B
€-24.1B
€-52.5B
€-52B
€-35.2B
€-0.5B
€-35.2B
€-44B
€-20B
€8.8B
€-20B
€-22B
€-92.8B
€2B
€-92.8B
€-65B
€-113.9B
€-27.8B
€-113.9B
€-98B
€-107.7B
€-15.9B
€-108B
€-107B
€-109B
€-1B
€-109B
€-64B
€-123.1B
€-45B
€-123.1B
€-92B
€-109.7B
€-31.1B
€-109.7B
€-84B
€-77.3B
€-25.7B
€-77.3B
€-60.5B
€-83.9B
€-16.8B
€-83.9B
€-70.2B
€-67.2B
€-13.7B
€-67.2B
€-62.2B
€-40.7B
€-5B
€-40.7B
€-41.1B
€-36.9B
€0.4B
€-36.9B
€-24B
€-17.3B
€-12.9B
€-17.3B
€-12B
€-76.1B
€-5.3B
€-76.1B
€-85B
€-95.6B
€8.9B
€-95.6B
€-88.2B
€-87B
€-7.4B
€-87B
€-75.2B
€-87.1B
€-11.8B
€-87.1B
€-74B
€-97.3B
€-13.1B
€-97.3B
€-90.8B
€-82.8B
€-6.5B
€-82.8B
€-80.6B
€-58.9B
€-2.2B
€-58.9B
€-60B
€-55.1B
€1.1B
€-55.1B
€-63.2B
€-54.3B
€8.1B
€-54.3B
€-56.4B
€-33.1B
€2.1B
€-33.1B
€-34.2B
€-28.48B
€1.1B
€-28.5B
€-20.3B
€-10.8B
€-8.2B
€-10.76B
€-4.9B
€-67.8B
€-5.86B
€-67.8B
€-66.5B
€-84.7B
€-1.3B
€-84.7B
€-90.2B
€-77.1B
€5.5B
€-77.2B
€-86.2B
€-76.3B
€9B
€-76.3B
€-82B
€-93B
€5.7B
€-93B
€-94.3B
€-83.8B
€1.3B
€-83.8B
€-78.2B
€-62.3B
€-5.6B
€-62.3B
€-60.4B
€-66.4B
€-1.9B
€-66.4B
€-64.7B
€-57.93B
€-1.7B
€-57.93B
€-54.3B
€-29.6B
€-3.63B
€-29.6B
€-26.9B
€-21.5B
€-2.7B
€-21.5B
€-24.5B
€-5.4B
€3B
€-5.4B
€-9.2B
€-69B
€3.8B
€-69B
€-79.7B
€-93.3B
€10.7B
€-93.3B
€-91.5B
€-85.5B
€-1.8B
€-85.5B
€-84.3B
€-83B
€-1.2B
€-83B
€-78.6B
€-96B
€-4.4B
€-96B
€-91.5B
€-80.8B
€-4.5B
€-80.8B
€-81.3B
€-61.8B
€0.5B
€-61.8B
€-61.1B
€-65.7B
€-0.7B
€-65.7B
€-64.8B
€-56.5B
€-0.9B
€-56.5B
€-61.2B
€-27.5B
€4.7B
€-27.5B
€-28.3B
€-25.58B
€0.8B
€-25.58B
€-25.6B
€-9.2B
€0.02B
€-9.2B
€-10.2B
€-70.5B
€1B
€-70.5B
€-97.2B
€-82.8B
€26.7B
€-82.8B
€-76.2B
€-76.2B
€-79.2B
€-74.5B
€3B
€-74.5B
€-80.4B
€-89.65B
€5.9B
€-89.65B
€-87.3B
€-79.8B
€-2.35B
€-79.8B
€-61.2B
€-58.5B
€-18.6B