Canada Balance of Trade

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Latest Release:

Big Surprise:

CAD-4.92B

CAD

Actual:

C$-1.52B

Forecast: C$3.4B

Previous/Revision:

C$3.13B

Period: Apr 2025

Next Release:

Forecast: C$-6.9B

Period: May 2025

What Does It Measure?

The Balance of Trade measures the difference in value between a country’s exports and imports over a certain period, highlighting trade surpluses or deficits that can impact national economic conditions. It focuses on goods and services exchanged between Canada and other countries, serving as a national economic indicator, where a surplus indicates more exports than imports, while a deficit shows more imports than exports.

Frequency

The Balance of Trade report for Canada is typically released monthly and often includes both preliminary and revised figures, usually published in the first week of the month.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders follow the Balance of Trade closely because it directly affects the Canadian dollar, as a trade surplus generally strengthens the currency while a deficit can weaken it. This report also informs decisions on stocks and bonds by indicating economic health, where a positive or better-than-expected result may boost equities, whereas a worse-than-expected figure could lead to bearish market reactions.

What Is It Derived From?

The Balance of Trade is calculated using Customs and Excise data to track the value of goods and services exported and imported, with adjustments for seasonal variations and timing discrepancies. Data is compiled from a wide array of industries and sectors, using international trade standards and methodologies.

Description

Canada's Balance of Trade report details the value and volume of exported and imported goods and services, offering insights into the country's international trade relationships. Preliminary reports are initial estimates that use partial data, while final reports are released later with refined accuracy based on comprehensive information. Markets often respond more vigorously to preliminary data due to its immediate impact on economic expectations, while final data can prompt additional adjustments in sentiment. Monthly-over-Month (MoM) reporting is used as it provides a more immediate snapshot of changes in trade dynamics and is helpful for identifying short-term economic shifts.

Additional Notes

The Balance of Trade is considered a coincident indicator as it reflects current economic activities. It relates to broader trends like currency exchange rates and can affect Canada's economic relations with the U.S. and other trading partners, influencing global financial markets and trade policies.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for CAD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for CAD, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the ‘Actual’ value differs enough from the forecast or if the ‘Previous’ value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the ‘Actual’ deviates from the forecast or there’s a notable revision to the ‘Previous’ value.

Medium Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there’s an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency.

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Apr 03, 2025	C$-1.52B	C$3.4B	C$3.13B	C$-4.92B
Mar 06, 2025	C$3.97B	C$1.3B	C$1.7B	C$2.67B
Feb 05, 2025	C$0.71B	C$0.75B	C$-0.99B	C$-0.04B
Jan 07, 2025	C$-0.32B	C$-0.9B	C$-0.54B	C$0.58B
Dec 05, 2024	C$-0.92B	C$-0.8B	C$-1.3B	C$-0.12B
Nov 05, 2024	C$-1.26B	C$-0.8B	C$-1.47B	C$-0.46B
Oct 08, 2024	C$-1.1B	C$-0.5B	C$-0.29B	C$-0.6B
Sep 04, 2024	C$0.68B	C$0.85B	C$-0.18B	C$-0.17B
Aug 06, 2024	C$0.64B	C$-1.84B	C$-1.61B	C$2.48B
Jul 03, 2024	C$-1.93B	C$-1.2B	C$-1.32B	C$-0.73B
Jun 06, 2024	C$-1.05B	C$-1.4B	C$-1.99B	C$0.35B
May 02, 2024	C$-2.28B	C$1.5B	C$0.48B	C$-3.78B
Apr 04, 2024	C$1.39B	C$0.8B	C$0.61B	C$0.59B
Mar 07, 2024	C$0.5B	C$0.1B	C$-0.86B	C$0.4B
Feb 07, 2024	C$-0.31B	C$1.1B	C$1.06B	C$-1.41B
Jan 09, 2024	C$1.57B	C$2B	C$3.2B	C$-0.43B
Dec 06, 2023	C$2.97B	C$1.6B	C$1.12B	C$1.37B
Nov 07, 2023	C$2.04B	C$1B	C$0.95B	C$1.04B
Oct 05, 2023	C$0.72B	C$-1.5B	C$-0.44B	C$2.22B
Sep 06, 2023	C$-0.99B	C$-3.65B	C$-4.92B	C$2.66B
Aug 08, 2023	C$-3.73B	C$-2.9B	C$-2.68B	C$-0.83B
Jul 06, 2023	C$-3.44B	C$1.15B	C$0.89B	C$-4.59B
Jun 07, 2023	C$1.94B	C$0.9B	C$0.23B	C$1.04B
May 04, 2023	C$0.97B	C$0.2B	C$-0.49B	C$0.77B
Apr 05, 2023	C$0.42B	C$1.8B	C$1.2B	C$-1.38B
Mar 08, 2023	C$1.92B	C$-0.06B	C$1.19B	C$1.98B
Feb 07, 2023	C$-0.16B	C$-0.5B	C$-0.22B	C$0.34B
Jan 05, 2023	C$-0.04B	C$0.61B	C$0.13B	C$-0.65B
Dec 06, 2022	C$1.21B	C$1.2B	C$0.61B	C$0.01B
Nov 03, 2022	C$1.14B	C$1.34B	C$0.55B	C$-0.2B
Oct 05, 2022	C$1.52B	C$3.45B	C$2.37B	C$-1.93B
Sep 07, 2022	C$4.05B	C$3.8B	C$4.88B	C$0.25B
Aug 04, 2022	C$5.05B	C$4.8B	C$4.77B	C$0.25B
Jul 07, 2022	C$5.32B	C$2.4B	C$2.17B	C$2.92B
Jun 07, 2022	C$1.5B	C$2.9B	C$2.28B	C$-1.4B
May 04, 2022	C$2.49B	C$3.9B	C$3.08B	C$-1.41B
Apr 05, 2022	C$2.66B	C$2.9B	C$3.12B	C$-0.24B
Mar 08, 2022	C$2.62B	C$1.6B	C$-1.58B	C$1.02B
Feb 08, 2022	C$-0.14B	C$2.5B	C$2.47B	C$-2.64B
Jan 06, 2022	C$3.13B	C$2.03B	C$2.26B	C$1.1B
Dec 07, 2021	C$2.1B	C$2B	C$1.4B	C$0.1B
Nov 04, 2021	C$1.86B	C$1.55B	C$1.51B	C$0.31B
Oct 05, 2021	C$1.94B	C$0.43B	C$0.74B	C$1.51B
Sep 02, 2021	C$0.78B	C$1.4B	C$2.56B	C$-0.62B
Aug 05, 2021	C$3.23B	C$-0.68B	C$-1.58B	C$3.91B
Jul 02, 2021	C$-1.39B	C$0.37B	C$0.46B	C$-1.76B
Jun 08, 2021	C$0.59B	C$-0.7B	C$-1.35B	C$1.29B
May 04, 2021	C$-1.14B	C$0.7B	C$1.42B	C$-1.84B
Apr 07, 2021	C$1.04B	C$1B	C$1.21B	C$0.04B
Mar 05, 2021	C$1.41B	C$-1.4B	C$-1.98B	C$2.81B
Feb 05, 2021	C$-1.67B	C$-3B	C$-3.56B	C$1.33B
Jan 07, 2021	C$-3.34B	C$-3.5B	C$-3.73B	C$0.16B
Dec 04, 2020	C$-3.76B	C$-3B	C$-3.8B	C$-0.76B
Nov 04, 2020	C$-3.25B	C$-2.6B	C$-3.21B	C$-0.65B
Oct 06, 2020	C$-2.45B	C$-2B	C$-2.53B	C$-0.45B
Sep 03, 2020	C$-2.45B	C$-2.5B	C$-1.59B	C$0.05B
Aug 05, 2020	C$-3.19B	C$-0.9B	C$-1.33B	C$-2.29B
Jul 02, 2020	C$-0.68B	C$-3B	C$-4.27B	C$2.32B
Jun 04, 2020	C$-3.25B	C$-2.36B	C$-1.53B	C$-0.89B
May 05, 2020	C$-1.41B	C$-2B	C$-0.89B	C$0.59B
Apr 02, 2020	C$-0.98B	C$-1.87B	C$-1.66B	C$0.89B
Mar 06, 2020	C$-1.47B	C$-0.83B	C$-0.73B	C$-0.64B
Feb 05, 2020	C$-0.4B	C$-0.61B	C$-1.2B	C$0.21B
Jan 07, 2020	C$-1.09B	C$-1.15B	C$-1.61B	C$0.06B
Dec 05, 2019	C$-1.08B	C$-1.37B	C$-1.23B	C$0.29B
Nov 05, 2019	C$-0.98B	C$-0.7B	C$-1.24B	C$-0.28B
Oct 04, 2019	C$-0.96B	C$-1B	C$-1.38B	C$0.04B
Sep 04, 2019	C$-1.12B	C$-0.4B	C$-0.06B	C$-0.72B
Aug 02, 2019	C$0.14B	C$-0.3B	C$0.56B	C$0.44B
Jul 03, 2019	C$0.76B	C$-1.5B	C$-1.08B	C$2.26B
Jun 06, 2019	C$-0.97B	C$-2.8B	C$-2.34B	C$1.83B
May 09, 2019	C$-3.21B	C$-2.45B	C$-3.42B	C$-0.76B
Apr 17, 2019	C$-2.9B	C$-3.5B	C$-3.09B	C$0.6B
Mar 27, 2019	C$-4.25B	C$-3.5B	C$-4.82B	C$-0.75B
Mar 06, 2019	C$-4.59B	C$-2.8B	C$-1.98B	C$-1.79B
Jan 08, 2019	C$-2.06B	C$-1.95B	C$-0.85B	C$-0.11B
Dec 06, 2018	C$-1.17B	C$-0.7B	C$-0.89B	C$-0.47B
Nov 02, 2018	C$-0.42B	C$0.15B	C$-0.55B	C$-0.57B
Oct 05, 2018	C$0.53B	C$-0.5B	C$-0.19B	C$1.03B
Sep 05, 2018	C$-0.11B	C$-1.13B	C$-0.74B	C$1.02B
Aug 03, 2018	C$-0.63B	C$-2.3B	C$-2.72B	C$1.67B
Jul 06, 2018	C$-2.77B	C$-2.05B	C$-1.86B	C$-0.72B
Jun 06, 2018	C$-1.9B	C$-3.4B	C$-3.93B	C$1.5B
May 03, 2018	C$-4.14B	C$-2.24B	C$-2.93B	C$-1.9B
Apr 05, 2018	C$-2.69B	C$-2.1B	C$-1.94B	C$-0.59B
Mar 07, 2018	C$-1.91B	C$-2.5B	C$-3.05B	C$0.59B
Feb 06, 2018	C$-3.19B	C$-2.2B	C$-2.71B	C$-0.99B
Jan 05, 2018	C$-2.54B	C$-1.2B	C$-1.55B	C$-1.34B
Dec 05, 2017	C$-1.47B	C$-2.7B	C$-3.36B	C$1.23B
Nov 03, 2017	C$-3.18B	C$-3B	C$-3.18B	C$-0.18B
Oct 05, 2017	C$-3.41B	C$-2.6B	C$-2.98B	C$-0.81B
Sep 06, 2017	C$-3.04B	C$-3.1B	C$-3.76B	C$0.06B
Aug 04, 2017	C$-3.6B	C$-1.35B	C$-1.36B	C$-2.25B
Jul 06, 2017	C$-1.09B	C$-0.53B	C$-0.55B	C$-0.56B
Jun 02, 2017	C$-0.37B	C$-0.07B	C$-0.94B	C$-0.3B
May 04, 2017	C$-0.14B	C$-0.85B	C$-1.08B	C$0.71B
Apr 04, 2017	C$-0.97B	C$0.5B	C$0.42B	C$-1.47B
Mar 07, 2017	C$0.81B	C$0.7B	C$0.45B	C$0.11B
Feb 07, 2017	C$0.92B	C$0.35B	C$1.01B	C$0.57B
Jan 06, 2017	C$0.53B	C$-1.6B	C$-1.02B	C$2.13B
Dec 06, 2016	C$-1.13B	C$-2B	C$-4.38B	C$0.87B
Nov 04, 2016	C$-4.08B	C$-1.7B	C$-1.99B	C$-2.38B
Oct 05, 2016	C$-1.94B	C$-2.6B	C$-2.19B	C$0.66B
Sep 02, 2016	C$-2.49B	C$-3.25B	C$-3.97B	C$0.76B
Aug 05, 2016	C$-3.63B	C$-2.82B	C$-3.5B	C$-0.81B
Jul 06, 2016	C$-3.28B	C$-2.7B	C$-3.32B	C$-0.58B
Jun 03, 2016	C$-2.94B	C$-2.45B	C$-3.18B	C$-0.49B
May 04, 2016	C$-3.41B	C$-1.4B	C$-2.47B	C$-2.01B
Apr 05, 2016	C$-1.91B	C$-0.9B	C$-0.63B	C$-1.01B
Mar 04, 2016	C$-0.66B	C$-1.05B	C$-0.63B	C$0.39B
Feb 05, 2016	C$-0.59B	C$-2.2B	C$-1.59B	C$1.61B
Jan 06, 2016	C$-1.99B	C$-2.6B	C$-2.49B	C$0.61B
Dec 04, 2015	C$-2.76B	C$-1.7B	C$-2.33B	C$-1.06B
Nov 04, 2015	C$-1.73B	C$-1.9B	C$-2.66B	C$0.17B
Oct 06, 2015	C$-2.53B	C$-1.2B	C$-0.82B	C$-1.33B
Sep 03, 2015	C$-0.59B	C$-1.3B	C$-0.81B	C$0.71B
Aug 05, 2015	C$-0.48B	CAD -2.8B	C$-3.37B
Jul 07, 2015	C$-3.34B	C$-3.3B	C$-2.99B	C$-0.04B
Jun 03, 2015	C$-2.97B	C$-1.5B	C$-3.85B	C$-1.47B
May 05, 2015	C$-3.02B	C$0.1B	C$-2.22B	C$-3.12B