China Caixin Manufacturing PMI

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Latest Release:

Surprise:

CNY0.6

CNY

Actual:

50.4

Forecast: 49.8

Previous/Revision:

51.2

Period: Apr 2025

Next Release:

Forecast: 49.5

Period: Jun 2025

What Does It Measure?

The China Caixin Manufacturing PMI measures the economic health of China's manufacturing sector by surveying purchasing managers in the industry, focusing on production, employment, and new orders. A key indicator is the PMI value itself, where a reading above 50 signifies expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction, making it a national indicator.

Frequency

The China Caixin Manufacturing PMI is released monthly as a preliminary estimate, typically published on the first business day of the month.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders pay close attention to the China Caixin Manufacturing PMI because it provides timely insights into the economic activity in the manufacturing sector, influencing financial markets and investor sentiment. Positive or higher-than-expected results are usually bullish for the Chinese yuan (CNY) and related stocks, while weaker readings may lead to bearish reactions.

What Is It Derived From?

The China Caixin Manufacturing PMI is derived from survey responses of purchasing managers within manufacturing firms, capturing data on components such as output, new orders, and inventory levels. The data is compiled using a diffusion index methodology, where the survey results are weighted to generate the overall PMI reading.

Description

The China Caixin Manufacturing PMI is an influential economic indicator that provides a snapshot of the Chinese manufacturing sector, which is crucial for understanding broader economic trends. The preliminary report offers early estimates based on initial survey responses, which often leads to more significant market movements compared to the final report, which is later revised and generally considered more accurate but less market-moving due to its timing. For this indicator, month-over-month (MoM) reporting is applied, highlighting short-term changes and potentially sudden shifts in manufacturing conditions, allowing traders and analysts to promptly adjust forecasts and strategies.

Additional Notes

The China Caixin Manufacturing PMI serves as a leading economic indicator, often providing early signals of shifts in the Chinese economy that may precede changes in broader economic conditions. It complements other reports such as the official NBS Manufacturing PMI, providing additional context for analysts comparing market expectations with actual economic performance in the region.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for CNY, Bullish for Chinese Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for CNY, Bearish for Chinese Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the ‘Actual’ value differs enough from the forecast or if the ‘Previous’ value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the ‘Actual’ deviates from the forecast or there’s a notable revision to the ‘Previous’ value.

Medium Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there’s an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency.

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Apr 30, 2025	50.4	49.8	51.2	0.6
Apr 01, 2025		51.1
Mar 03, 2025		50.3
Feb 03, 2025		50.5
Jan 02, 2025		51.7
Dec 02, 2024	51.5	50.5	50.3	1
Nov 01, 2024	50.3	49.7	49.3	0.6
Sep 30, 2024	49.3	50.5	50.4	-1.2
Sep 02, 2024	50.4	50	49.8	0.4
Aug 01, 2024	49.8	51.5	51.8	-1.7
Jul 01, 2024	51.8	51.2	51.7	0.6
Jun 03, 2024	51.7	51.5	51.4	0.2
Apr 30, 2024	51.4	51	51.1	0.4
Apr 01, 2024	51.1	51	50.9	0.1
Mar 01, 2024	50.9	50.6	50.8	0.3
Feb 01, 2024	50.8	50.6	50.8	0.2
Jan 02, 2024	50.8	50.4	50.7	0.4
Dec 01, 2023	50.7	49.8	49.5	0.9
Nov 01, 2023	49.5	50.8	50.6	-1.3
Oct 01, 2023	50.6	51.2	51	-0.6
Sep 01, 2023	51	49.3	49.2	1.7
Aug 01, 2023	49.2	50.3	50.5	-1.1
Jul 03, 2023	50.5	50.2	50.9	0.3
Jun 01, 2023	50.9	49.5	49.5	1.4
May 04, 2023	49.5	50.3	50	-0.8
Apr 03, 2023	50	51.7	51.6	-1.7
Mar 01, 2023	51.6	50.2	49.2	1.4
Feb 01, 2023	49.2	49.5	49	-0.3
Jan 03, 2023	49	48.8	49.4	0.2
Dec 01, 2022	49.4	48.9	49.2	0.5
Nov 01, 2022	49.2	49	48.1	0.2
Sep 30, 2022	48.1	49.5	49.5	-1.4
Sep 01, 2022	49.5	50.2	50.4	-0.7
Aug 01, 2022	50.4	51.5	51.7	-1.1
Jul 01, 2022	51.7	50.1	48.1	1.6
Jun 01, 2022	48.1	48	46	0.1
Apr 30, 2022	46	47	48.1	-1
Apr 01, 2022	48.1	50	50.4	-1.9
Mar 01, 2022	50.4	49.3	49.1	1.1
Jan 30, 2022	49.1	50.4	50.9	-1.3
Jan 04, 2022	50.9	50	49.9	0.9
Dec 01, 2021	49.9	50.5	50.6	-0.6
Nov 01, 2021	50.6	50	50	0.6
Sep 30, 2021	50	49.5	49.2	0.5
Sep 01, 2021	49.2	50.2	50.3	-1
Aug 02, 2021	50.3	51	51.3	-0.7
Jul 01, 2021	51.3	51.8	52	-0.5
Jun 01, 2021	52	51.9	51.9	0.1
Apr 30, 2021	51.9	50.8	50.6	1.1
Apr 01, 2021	50.6	51.3	50.9	-0.7
Mar 01, 2021	50.9	51.5	51.5	-0.6
Feb 01, 2021	51.5	52.7	53	-1.2
Jan 04, 2021	53	54.8	54.9	-1.8
Dec 01, 2020	54.9	53.5	53.6	1.4
Nov 02, 2020	53.6	53	53	0.6
Sep 30, 2020	53	53.1	53.1	-0.1
Sep 01, 2020	53.1	52.6	52.8	0.5
Aug 03, 2020	52.8	51.3	51.2	1.5
Jul 01, 2020	51.2	50.5	50.7	0.7
Jun 01, 2020	50.7	49.6	49.4	1.1
Apr 30, 2020	49.4	50.3	50.1	-0.9
Apr 01, 2020	50.1	45.5	40.3	4.6
Mar 02, 2020	40.3	45.7	51.1	-5.4
Feb 03, 2020	51.1	51.3	51.5	-0.2
Jan 02, 2020	51.5	51.8	51.8	-0.3
Dec 02, 2019	51.8	51.4	51.7	0.4
Nov 01, 2019	51.7	51	51.4	0.7
Sep 30, 2019	51.4	50.2	50.4	1.2
Sep 02, 2019	50.4	49.8	49.9	0.6
Aug 01, 2019	49.9	49.6	49.4	0.3
Jul 01, 2019	49.4	50	50.2	-0.6
Jun 03, 2019	50.2	50	50.2	0.2
Apr 30, 2019	50.2	51	50.8	-0.8
Apr 01, 2019	50.8	50.1	49.9	0.7
Mar 01, 2019	49.9	48.5	48.3	1.4
Feb 01, 2019	48.3	49.5	49.7	-1.2
Jan 02, 2019	49.7	50.1	50.2	-0.4
Dec 03, 2018	50.2	50.1	50.1	0.1
Nov 01, 2018	50.1	49.9	50	0.2
Sep 30, 2018	50	50.5	50.6	-0.5
Sep 03, 2018	50.6	50.6	50.8
Aug 01, 2018	50.8	50.8	51
Jul 02, 2018	51	51.1	51.1	-0.1
Jun 01, 2018	51.1	51.3	51.1	-0.2
May 02, 2018	51.1	50.9	51	0.2
Apr 02, 2018	51	51.8	51.6	-0.8
Mar 01, 2018	51.6	51.3	51.5	0.3
Feb 01, 2018	51.5	51.5	51.5
Jan 02, 2018	51.5	50.6	50.8	0.9
Dec 01, 2017	50.8	50.9	51	-0.1
Nov 01, 2017	51	51	51
Sep 30, 2017	51	51.5	51.6	-0.5
Sep 01, 2017	51.6	50.9	51.1	0.7
Aug 01, 2017	51.1	50.4	50.4	0.7
Jul 03, 2017	50.4	49.5	49.6	0.9
Jun 01, 2017	49.6	50.1	50.3	-0.5
May 02, 2017	50.3	51.2	51.2	-0.9
Apr 01, 2017	51.2	51.5	51.7	-0.3
Mar 01, 2017	51.7	50.8	51	0.9
Feb 03, 2017	51	51.8	51.9	-0.8
Jan 03, 2017	51.9	50.6	50.9	1.3
Dec 01, 2016	50.9	50.8	51.2	0.1
Nov 01, 2016	51.2	50.2	50.1	1
Sep 30, 2016	50.1	50.1	50
Sep 01, 2016	50	50.1	50.6	-0.1
Aug 01, 2016	50.6	48.7	48.6	1.9
Jul 01, 2016	48.6	49.1	49.2	-0.5
Jun 01, 2016	49.2	49.3	49.4	-0.1
May 03, 2016	49.4	49.9	49.7	-0.5
Apr 01, 2016	49.7	48.2	48	1.5
Mar 01, 2016	48	48.3	48.4	-0.3
Feb 01, 2016	48.4	48	48.2	0.4
Jan 04, 2016	48.2	49	48.6	-0.8
Dec 01, 2015	48.6	48.3	48.3	0.3
Nov 02, 2015	48.3	47.5	47.2	0.8