China Caixin Services PMI

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Latest Release:

Surprise:

CNY-1

CNY

Actual:

51.5

Forecast: 52.5

Previous/Revision:

Period: Dec 2024

Next Release:

Forecast: 51.7

Period: Jan 2025

What Does It Measure?

The China Caixin Services PMI measures China's non-manufacturing economic activity within the service sector. It assesses key areas such as business activity, employment, new business, and price pressures, with a key indicator being whether the PMI is above or below 50, where above 50 indicates expansion and below 50 denotes contraction, and it is a national indicator.

Frequency

The China Caixin Services PMI is released on a monthly basis, typically as a preliminary figure during the first week of the following month.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders care about the China Caixin Services PMI because it offers insights into economic growth and potential business activity in China, affecting investor sentiment and financial markets. Positive or higher-than-expected results are bullish for the Chinese yuan and equities, while weaker readings may have bearish implications, influencing forecasts and economic decision-making.

What Is It Derived From?

The China Caixin Services PMI is derived from a survey conducted with purchasing managers from over 400 businesses in the Chinese service sector. The data collection methodology includes weighted responses to current business conditions, such as new orders and employment, to create a diffusion index.

Description

The China Caixin Services PMI provides an early signal of turning points in economic growth and changing conditions in the service sector. Preliminary data, based on early responses, often impacts market sentiment more immediately, while final figures provide a more accurate assessment but are released later, sometimes causing adjustments in forecasts. This indicator utilizes a month-over-month (MoM) reporting approach, which provides a timely snapshot of the service sector's short-term performance, offering critical insights into economic momentum and potential policy implications.

Additional Notes

The China Caixin Services PMI serves as a leading economic indicator as it provides early insights into economic trends before official data, helping analysts anticipate GDP movements. It complements other PMIs, such as the Manufacturing PMI, providing a more comprehensive view of China's economic activity and its global impact.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for CNY, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for CNY, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the ‘Actual’ value differs enough from the forecast or if the ‘Previous’ value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the ‘Actual’ deviates from the forecast or there’s a notable revision to the ‘Previous’ value.

Medium Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there’s an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency.

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Dec 04, 2024	51.5	52.5	52	-1
Nov 05, 2024	52	50.5	50.3	1.5
Sep 30, 2024	50.3	51.5	51.6	-1.2
Sep 04, 2024	51.6	52.2	52.1	-0.6
Aug 05, 2024	52.1	51.4	51.2	0.7
Jul 03, 2024	51.2	53.4	54	-2.2
Jun 05, 2024	54	52.6	52.5	1.4
May 06, 2024	52.5	52.5	52.7
Apr 03, 2024	52.7	52.7	52.5
Mar 05, 2024	52.5	53.4	52.7	-0.9
Feb 05, 2024	52.7	52.9	52.9	-0.2
Jan 04, 2024	52.9	51.6	51.5	1.3
Dec 05, 2023	51.5	51	50.4	0.5
Nov 03, 2023	50.4	50.4	50.2
Oct 01, 2023	50.2	52.6	51.8	-2.4
Sep 05, 2023	51.8	53.6	54.1	-1.8
Aug 03, 2023	54.1	52.5	53.9	1.6
Jul 05, 2023	53.9	56.5	57.1	-2.6
Jun 05, 2023	57.1	55	56.4	2.1
May 05, 2023	56.4	58	57.8	-1.6
Apr 06, 2023	57.8	54.8	55	3
Mar 03, 2023	55	53.8	52.9	1.2
Feb 03, 2023	52.9	52	48	0.9
Jan 05, 2023	48	44.5	46.7	3.5
Dec 05, 2022	46.7	47	48.4	-0.3
Nov 03, 2022	48.4	49.1	49.3	-0.7
Oct 08, 2022	49.3	54.8	55	-5.5
Sep 05, 2022	55	51	55.5	4
Aug 03, 2022	55.5	55.2	54.5	0.3
Jul 05, 2022	54.5	49.1	41.4	5.4
Jun 06, 2022	41.4	43	36.2	-1.6
May 05, 2022	36.2	42.1	42	-5.9
Apr 06, 2022	42	49.3	50.2	-7.3
Mar 03, 2022	50.2	52	51.4	-1.8
Feb 07, 2022	51.4	51	53.1	0.4
Jan 06, 2022	53.1	52.2	52.1	0.9
Dec 03, 2021	52.1	53	53.8	-0.9
Nov 03, 2021	53.8	53	53.4	0.8
Oct 08, 2021	53.4	49	46.7	4.4
Sep 03, 2021	46.7	54	54.9	-7.3
Aug 04, 2021	54.9	50.6	50.3	4.3
Jul 05, 2021	50.3	55	55.1	-4.7
Jun 03, 2021	55.1	55.9	56.3	-0.8
May 07, 2021	56.3	54.5	54.3	1.8
Apr 06, 2021	54.3	52.7	51.5	1.6
Mar 03, 2021	51.5	51.7	52	-0.2
Feb 03, 2021	52	55.8	56.3	-3.8
Jan 06, 2021	56.3	56.9	57.8	-0.6
Dec 03, 2020	57.8	56.4	56.8	1.4
Nov 04, 2020	56.8	54	54.8	2.8
Oct 09, 2020	54.8	53	54	1.8
Sep 03, 2020	54	53.7	54.1	0.3
Aug 05, 2020	54.1	56	58.4	-1.9
Jul 03, 2020	58.4	53.6	55	4.8
Jun 03, 2020	55	48.6	44.4	6.4
May 07, 2020	44.4	47.7	43	-3.3
Apr 03, 2020	43	40.3	26.5	2.7
Mar 04, 2020	26.5	47.7	51.8	-21.2
Feb 05, 2020	51.8	52.6	52.5	-0.8
Jan 06, 2020	52.5	53	53.5	-0.5
Dec 04, 2019	53.5	52.7	51.1	0.8
Nov 05, 2019	51.1	52.8	51.3	-1.7
Oct 08, 2019	51.3	52.9	52.1	-1.6
Sep 04, 2019	52.1	52	51.6	0.1
Aug 05, 2019	51.6	52	52	-0.4
Jul 03, 2019	52	52.6	52.7	-0.6
Jun 05, 2019	52.7	54.3	54.5	-1.6
May 06, 2019	54.5	52.8	54.4	1.7
Apr 03, 2019	54.4	52.3	51.1	2.1
Mar 05, 2019	51.1	53.5	53.6	-2.4
Feb 03, 2019	53.6	53.3	53.9	0.3
Jan 04, 2019	53.9	52.9	53.8	1
Dec 05, 2018	53.8	50.7	50.8	3.1
Nov 05, 2018	50.8	52.9	53.1	-2.1
Oct 08, 2018	53.1	51.4	51.5	1.7
Sep 05, 2018	51.5	52.7	52.8	-1.2
Aug 03, 2018	52.8	53.7	53.9	-0.9
Jul 04, 2018	53.9	52.7	52.9	1.2
Jun 05, 2018	52.9	52.9	52.9
May 04, 2018	52.9	52.2	52.3	0.7
Apr 04, 2018	52.3	54.5	54.2	-2.2
Mar 05, 2018	54.2	54.3	54.7	-0.1
Feb 05, 2018	54.7	53.6	53.9	1.1
Jan 04, 2018	53.9	51.8	51.9	2.1
Dec 05, 2017	51.9	51.5	51.2	0.4
Nov 03, 2017	51.2	50.8	50.6	0.4
Oct 09, 2017	50.6	53.1	52.7	-2.5
Sep 05, 2017	52.7	51.8	51.5	0.9
Aug 03, 2017	51.5	51.9	51.6	-0.4
Jul 05, 2017	51.6	52.9	52.8	-1.3
Jun 05, 2017	52.8	51	51.5	1.8
May 04, 2017	51.5	52.6	52.2	-1.1
Apr 06, 2017	52.2	53.2	52.6	-1
Mar 03, 2017	52.6	53.3	53.1	-0.7
Feb 06, 2017	53.1	53.6	53.4	-0.5
Jan 05, 2017	53.4	53.3	53.1	0.1
Dec 05, 2016	53.1	52.7	52.4	0.4
Nov 03, 2016	52.4	52.5	52	-0.1
Oct 08, 2016	52	51.8	52.1	0.2
Sep 05, 2016	52.1	51.7	51.7	0.4
Aug 03, 2016	51.7	52.9	52.7	-1.2
Jul 05, 2016	52.7	52.3	51.2	0.4
Jun 03, 2016	51.2	52	51.8	-0.8
May 05, 2016	51.8	52.6	52.2	-0.8
Apr 06, 2016	52.2	51.4	51.2	0.8
Mar 03, 2016	51.2	52.6	52.4	-1.4
Feb 03, 2016	52.4	50.5	50.2	1.9
Jan 06, 2016	50.2	52.3	51.2	-2.1
Dec 03, 2015	51.2	53.1	52	-1.9
Nov 04, 2015	52	50.8	50.5	1.2
Oct 01, 2015	50.5	51.2	51.5	-0.7
Sep 01, 2015	51.5	53.9	53.8	-2.4
Aug 05, 2015	53.8	51.24	51.8	2.56