Australia Federal Elections

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Next Release:

Forecast:

Period: May 2022

What Does It Measure?

The Australia Federal Elections do not measure a direct economic indicator; instead, they determine the political leadership of the country, influencing economic policy and governance. Key areas indirectly affected by the elections include fiscal policy, regulatory environment, and economic reform strategy at a national level.

Frequency

Federal elections in Australia are held approximately every three years, and the timing depends on the dissolution of the House of Representatives, with results available shortly after voting concludes.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor Australia Federal Elections because the outcome can significantly impact economic and fiscal policies, affecting investor confidence and market stability. A government favoring pro-business policies may boost the Australian dollar and equity markets, while unclear or unpopular outcomes could result in market volatility and uncertainty.

What Is It Derived From?

Federal election outcomes in Australia are derived from national voting across electorates, where political parties compete for a majority in the House of Representatives, often accompanied by Senate elections. The process is administered by the Australian Electoral Commission, employing a preferential voting system to determine representation.

Description

Australia's federal elections involve a nationwide vote that elects members to the House of Representatives and, at times, partial Senate seats. Preliminary results are announced as votes are tallied, with final results confirmed once all counts, including absentee and postal votes, are completed. The preliminary results often instigate immediate market reactions due to their potential implication on future policy directives, while final results may refine these market perspectives as they confirm governance stability and direction.

Additional Notes

The Australia Federal Elections are considered a leading economic measure within the context of political cycles, as they preempt changes in economic policy and strategic direction. The results can align with or diverge from global trends, impacting how Australia engages in international economic relations and negotiations.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for AUD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for AUD, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the ‘Actual’ value differs enough from the forecast or if the ‘Previous’ value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the ‘Actual’ deviates from the forecast or there’s a notable revision to the ‘Previous’ value.

Medium Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there’s an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency.

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise