Canada GDP MoM Prel

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Latest Release:

Big Surprise:

0.7%

CAD

Actual:

0.1%

Forecast: -0.6%

Previous/Revision:

Period: Apr 2025

Next Release:

Forecast: -0.3%

Period: May 2025

What Does It Measure?

The Canada GDP MoM Prel measures the estimated change in the value of goods and services produced in the country compared to the previous month. This indicator emphasizes short-term economic fluctuations by assessing components like consumer spending, business investments, and government expenditures, showing whether the economy is expanding or contracting. A result above 0% indicates growth, while below 0% suggests a contraction, focusing on national economic performance.

Frequency

The Canada GDP MoM Prel is released monthly as a preliminary estimate, typically published at the end of the following month.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders pay close attention to the GDP MoM Prel report because it is a critical gauge of economic health and can influence monetary policy decisions. Stronger-than-expected growth is bullish for the Canadian dollar and equities, while weaker performance can lead to bearish market reactions as it might force policymakers to alter interest rate outlooks.

What Is It Derived From?

This preliminary GDP estimate is derived from a combination of data collected from various sectors including manufacturing, retail, and services. The report employs statistical techniques to forecast the aggregate production based on available partial data, and its preliminary nature involves estimations that may be revised later.

Description

The Canada GDP MoM Prel is an early estimate designed to provide timely insight into monthly economic activity changes. Preliminary data relies on partial information and models to project GDP, making it an essential tool for quick assessments, yet subject to revisions as more comprehensive data becomes available. Markets typically react strongly to this report's timeliness, though subsequent revisions can influence adjustments in financial forecasts and positions based on more accurate final GDP calculations, highlighting short-term shifts in the economy.

Additional Notes

The GDP MoM Prel serves as a leading indicator, providing insights into near-term economic momentum and assisting in forecasting quarterly GDP trends. Comparisons with similar GDP measures from other countries can offer context on Canada's relative economic performance on the global stage.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for CAD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for CAD, Bearish for Stocks. Hawkish tone: Signaling higher interest rates or inflation concerns, is usually good for the CAD but bad for Stocks due to higher borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the ‘Actual’ value differs enough from the forecast or if the ‘Previous’ value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the ‘Actual’ deviates from the forecast or there’s a notable revision to the ‘Previous’ value.

Medium Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there’s an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency.

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Apr 30, 2025	0.1%	-0.6%	0%	0.7%
Feb 28, 2025	0.3%	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%
Jan 31, 2025	0.2%	0.2%	-0.1%
Dec 23, 2024	-0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	-0.2%
Nov 29, 2024	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Oct 31, 2024	0.3%	0.4%	0%	-0.1%
Sep 27, 2024	0%	0.1%	0.2%	-0.1%
Aug 30, 2024	0%	0%	0.1%
Jul 31, 2024	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	-0.1%
Jun 28, 2024	0.1%	0.2%	0.3%	-0.1%
May 31, 2024	0.3%		0%
Apr 30, 2024	0%	0.1%	0.2%	-0.1%
Mar 28, 2024	0.4%	0.1%	0.6%	0.3%
Feb 29, 2024	0.4%	0%	0.3%	0.4%
Jan 31, 2024	0.3%	0%	0.2%	0.3%
Dec 22, 2023	0.1%	0.1%	0%
Nov 30, 2023	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Oct 31, 2023	0%	0%	0%
Sep 29, 2023	0.1%	-0.1%	0%	0.2%
Sep 01, 2023	0%	0%	-0.2%
Jul 28, 2023	-0.2%	0.1%	0.3%	-0.3%
Jun 30, 2023	0.4%	0%	0%	0.4%
May 31, 2023	0.2%	0.2%	0%
Apr 28, 2023	-0.1%	-0.2%	0.1%	0.1%
Mar 31, 2023	0.3%	-0.1%	0.5%	0.4%
Feb 28, 2023	0.3%	-0.1%	-0.1%	0.4%
Jan 31, 2023	0%	0%	0.1%
Dec 23, 2022	0%		0.1%
Nov 29, 2022	0%	-0.3%	0.1%	0.3%
Oct 28, 2022	0.1%	-0.2%	0%	0.3%
Sep 29, 2022	0%	-0.3%	0.1%	0.3%
Aug 31, 2022	-0.1%	0.3%	0.1%	-0.4%
Jul 29, 2022	0.1%	0%	-0.2%	0.1%
Jun 30, 2022	-0.2%	0.1%	0.2%	-0.3%
May 31, 2022	0.2%	0.3%	0.7%	-0.1%