China CNY

China NBS Manufacturing PMI

影响:
高的

Latest Release:

Big Surprise:
CNY-0.8
| CNY
实际的:
49
预报: 49.8
Previous/Revision:
50.5
Period: 4月 2025

Next Release:

预报:
Period: 5月 2025
它测量什么?
中国国家统计局(NBS)的制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)衡量中国经济中的制造业活动水平。它是评估生产、新订单、就业和供应商交货时间的关键指标,其中读数高于50表示扩张,低于50表示收缩,使其成为关键的国家级经济指标。
频率
中国国家统计局制造业PMI每月发布一次,通常在月初,是反映最新制造业状况的初步估计。
交易者为什么关心?
交易者关心国家统计局制造业PMI,因为它是经济健康状况的领先指标,会影响人民币和全球金融市场。更高的PMI表明经济扩张,对人民币和中国股市是利多因素,而较低的PMI可能导致看跌情绪。
它从何而来?
国家统计局制造业PMI源自对制造业采购经理的调查,收集有关产出、新订单和就业水平等变量的数据。采用扩散指数,通过加权响应来编制整体PMI读数,提供制造业健康状况的实时快照。
描述
国家统计局制造业PMI提供了行业趋势的早期信号,其初步性质意味着市场对所提供的数据反应迅速。尽管初步数据可能在后续发布中被修订,但这些修订对市场的影响较小,因为大部分反应已经发生。该指数按月环比报告,可及时检测制造业动态的变化,由于年度同比比较的时间跨度较长且可能存在季节性影响,因此通常被忽略。
附加说明
作为经济领先指标,国家统计局制造业PMI为未来经济表现提供了见解,鉴于制造业在中国经济中的重要作用。PMI也可以与全球同行业指标如美国ISM制造业PMI进行对比,以评估国际制造业趋势和经济动向。
货币和股票的看涨或看跌
高于预期:看涨货币,看涨股票。 低于预期:看跌货币,看跌股票。

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the ‘Actual’ value differs enough from the forecast or if the ‘Previous’ value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the ‘Actual’ deviates from the forecast or there’s a notable revision to the ‘Previous’ value.

Medium Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there’s an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency.

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
49
49.8
50.5
-0.8
50.5
50.5
50.2
50.2
49.9
49.1
0.3
49.1
50.1
50.1
-1
50.1
50.3
50.3
-0.2
50.3
50.3
50.1
50.1
50
49.8
0.1
49.8
49.5
49.1
0.3
49.1
49.5
49.4
-0.4
49.4
49.3
49.5
0.1
49.5
49.5
49.5
49.5
50.5
50.4
-1
50.4
50.3
50.8
0.1
50.8
49.9
49.1
0.9
49.1
49.1
49.2
49.2
49.2
49
49
49.5
49.4
-0.5
49.4
49.7
49.5
-0.3
49.5
50.2
50.2
-0.7
50.2
50
49.7
0.2
49.7
49.4
49.3
0.3
49.3
49.2
49
0.1
49
49
48.8
48.8
49.4
49.2
-0.6
49.2
51.4
51.9
-2.2
51.9
51.5
52.6
0.4
52.6
50.5
50.1
2.1
50.1
49.8
47
0.3
47
48
48
-1
48
49
49.2
-1
49.2
50
50.1
-0.8
50.1
49.6
49.4
0.5
49.4
49.2
49
0.2
49
50.4
50.2
-1.4
49.6
48.9
47.4
0.7
47.4
48
49.5
-0.6
49.5
49.9
50.2
-0.4
50.2
49.9
50.1
0.3
50.1
50
50.3
0.1
50.3
50
50.1
0.3
50.1
49.6
49.2
0.5
49.2
49.7
49.6
-0.5
49.6
50.1
50.1
-0.5
50.1
50.2
50.4
-0.1
50.4
50.8
50.9
-0.4
50.9
50.8
51
0.1
51
51.1
51.1
-0.1
51.1
51.7
51.9
-0.6
51.9
51
50.6
0.9
50.6
51.1
51.3
-0.5
51.3
51.6
51.9
-0.3
51.9
52
52.1
-0.1
52.1
51.5
51.4
0.6
51.4
51.3
51.5
0.1
51.5
51.2
51
0.3
51
51.2
51.1
-0.2
51.1
50.7
50.9
0.4
50.9
50.4
50.6
0.5
50.6
51
50.8
-0.4
50.8
51
52
-0.2
52
45
35.7
7
35.7
46
50
-10.3
50
50
50.2
50.2
50.1
50.2
0.1
50.2
49.5
49.3
0.7
49.3
49.8
49.8
-0.5
49.8
49.5
49.5
0.3
49.5
49.7
49.7
-0.2
49.7
49.6
49.4
0.1
49.4
49.5
49.4
-0.1
49.4
49.9
50.1
-0.5
50.1
50.5
50.5
-0.4
50.5
49.5
49.2
1
49.2
49.5
49.5
-0.3
49.5
49.3
49.4
0.2
49.4
49.9
50
-0.5
50
50.2
50.2
-0.2
50.2
50.6
50.8
-0.4
50.8
51.2
51.3
-0.4
51.3
51
51.2
0.3
51.2
51.3
51.5
-0.1
51.5
51.6
51.9
-0.1
51.9
51.3
51.4
0.6
51.4
51.3
51.5
0.1
51.5
50.5
50.3
1
50.3
51.2
51.3
-0.9
51.3
51.5
51.6
-0.2
51.6
1.6
51.8
50
51.8
51.4
51.6
0.4
51.6
52
52.4
-0.4
52.4
51.5
51.7
0.9
51.7
51.3
51.4
0.4
51.4
51.6
51.7
-0.2
51.7
51
51.2
0.7
51.2
51
51.2
0.2
51.2
51.6
51.8
-0.4
51.8
51.6
51.6
0.2
51.6
51.1
51.3
0.5
51.3
51.2
51.4
0.1
51.4
51.5
51.7
-0.1
51.7
51
51.2
0.7
51.2
50.4
50.4
0.8
50.4
50.4
50.4
50.4
49.9
49.9
0.5
49.9
50
50
-0.1
50
50
50.1
50.1
50
50.1
0.1
50.1
50.4
50.2
-0.3
50.2
49.3
49
0.9
49
49.3
49.4
-0.3
49.4
49.6
49.7
-0.2
49.7
49.7
49.6
49.6
49.8
49.8
-0.2
49.8
50
49.8
-0.2
49.8
49.6
49.7
0.2
49.7
50.5
50
-0.8
50
50.2
50.2
-0.2
50.2
50.3
50.17
-0.1
50.2
50.2
50.1