Spain HCOB Composite PMI

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Latest Release:

Surprise:

EUR-0.8

Actual:

53.2

Forecast: 54

Previous/Revision:

55.2

Period: Dec 2024

Next Release:

Forecast: 53.4

Period: Jan 2025

What Does It Measure?

The Spain HCOB Composite PMI measures the overall performance of the country's private sector by combining both manufacturing and services business activity data. Focusing on key areas such as business output, employment, and new orders, it provides a snapshot of economic health where a reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 suggests contraction. As a national indicator, it serves as a crucial gauge of economic activity in Spain.

Frequency

This index is released monthly, typically providing preliminary estimates early in the month with final figures issued by mid-month.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the Spain HCOB Composite PMI because it provides timely insights into economic growth or contraction, affecting investor sentiment regarding Spain's economic outlook. Stronger-than-expected readings can lead to bullishness for the euro and Spanish equities, whereas weaker results may have the opposite effect, reflecting potential vulnerabilities.

What Is It Derived From?

The Composite PMI is calculated using survey responses from purchasing managers across various industries, reflecting changes in business conditions through diffusion indices. Data is collected adhering to standardized methodologies, ensuring comparability and reliability across sectors.

Description

Preliminary PMI data is often based on around 85% of total survey responses, offering an early glimpse into economic activity, but it remains subject to revisions as additional data comes in, leading to the final PMI release. Financial markets tend to react more vigorously to preliminary data due to its immediate nature; however, final data can still prompt market adjustments. The Spain HCOB Composite PMI can be reported on a month-over-month basis to identify quick changes in economic conditions and is favored for its timeliness in signaling economic shifts.

Additional Notes

The Spain HCOB Composite PMI is a leading indicator, often preceding actual changes in economic activity, thus setting expectations for future growth or recession patterns. It aligns with similar PMIs from other European nations, providing comparative insights across the region.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for EUR, Bullish for Spanish stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for EUR, Bearish for Spanish stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the ‘Actual’ value differs enough from the forecast or if the ‘Previous’ value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the ‘Actual’ deviates from the forecast or there’s a notable revision to the ‘Previous’ value.

Medium Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there’s an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency.

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Dec 04, 2024	53.2	54	55.2	-0.8
Nov 06, 2024	55.2	56	56.3	-0.8
Oct 03, 2024	56.3	50.9	53.5	5.4
Sep 04, 2024	53.5	54	53.4	-0.5
Aug 05, 2024	53.4	55	55.8	-1.6
Jul 03, 2024	55.8	56	56.6	-0.2
Jun 05, 2024	56.6	56	55.7	0.6
May 06, 2024	55.7	54.6	55.3	1.1
Apr 04, 2024	55.3	52.6	53.9	2.7
Mar 05, 2024	53.9	52.3	51.5	1.6
Feb 05, 2024	51.5	50.7	50.4	0.8
Jan 04, 2024	50.4	50.1	49.8	0.3