China May Day

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Next Release:

Forecast:

Period: May 2021

What Does It Measure?

The "May Day" in China, also known as International Workers' Day, is not an economic indicator but rather a public holiday that marks the observance of labor achievements. While it doesn't explicitly measure economic output, the period around it can indirectly assess consumption patterns and tourism activity, as it often results in increased travel and spending, making it a factor of consideration in assessing short-term economic behavior in these sectors on a national scale.

Frequency

The May Day holiday in China occurs annually on May 1st, often accompanied by a few days of public holidays that may vary depending on the government's calendar adjustments.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders may look at spending patterns during the May Day holiday as an indication of consumer confidence and economic health, particularly in the retail and tourism sectors. Positive reports of increased spending and travel during this period could boost local market sentiment and be perceived as bullish for equities and consumer sector stocks, while poor performance might have the opposite effect.

What Is It Derived From?

The impact of May Day is derived from various non-official metrics, such as retail sales reports, domestic tourism data, and anecdotal evidence from retail and service businesses. These observations provide insights into consumer behavior, although not captured in structured surveys or indices.

Description

As an annual holiday, May Day does not have preliminary and final versions like economic reports. However, the economic impact can be assessed via sequential sales and travel data, which might be reported for the holiday period and compared to previous years' data to gauge economic vitality. Traders and analysts often compare year-over-year performance to gauge long-term consumer trends, which is particularly telling in a country like China with rapidly evolving consumption habits, reducing the impact of seasonal adjustments.

Additional Notes

The May Day holiday may be seen as a coincident indicator, offering real-time insights into consumer spending trends linked to broader economic shifts in the Chinese economy. As a cultural and economic event, it mirrors similar holiday impacts in other regions like the U.S. Labor Day or Europe's May 1st celebrations, but its effect is often more pronounced due to China's large domestic consumer base.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for CNY, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for CNY, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the ‘Actual’ value differs enough from the forecast or if the ‘Previous’ value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the ‘Actual’ deviates from the forecast or there’s a notable revision to the ‘Previous’ value.

Medium Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there’s an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency.

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise