Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Latest Release:

Surprise:

EUR-0.2

EUR

Actual:

Forecast: 43.2

Previous/Revision:

Period: Dec 2024

Next Release:

Forecast: 42.5

Period: Jan 2025

What Does It Measure?

The Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) Final measures the overall health and activity of the German manufacturing sector. It focuses on new orders, production, employment, supplier delivery times, and inventory levels, providing insights into the economic trends within the industry; a PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 signals contraction. This is a national indicator for Germany.

Frequency

The Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final is released monthly, usually within the first week, as a revision following the Preliminary PMI, which offers an initial estimate.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders focus on this indicator because it provides timely and vital insights into Germany's manufacturing sector’s health, which significantly influences economic performance. A higher-than-expected PMI can be bullish for the euro and German equities, while a lower reading may lead to bearish reactions by signaling potential economic downturns.

What Is It Derived From?

The Manufacturing PMI is derived from a survey conducted with purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry, using a diffusion index methodology where respondents provide qualitative assessments of business conditions. Their responses are weighted and combined to give a single PMI figure, which reflects the overall business sentiment.

Description

The Final PMI report revises the initial estimates provided in the Preliminary PMI, based on more comprehensive data collection and analysis. Preliminary data is an early snapshot that often draws immediate market reactions due to its timeliness, while the Final data offers a more accurate and confirmed picture, which can lead to adjustments in market positions. The PMI, being a diffusion index, measures the month-over-month changes to provide a current and responsive economic indicator.

Additional Notes

The PMI serves as a leading economic indicator, as changes in manufacturing activity often precede broader economic trends. This data can impact other regions and correlate with global manufacturing reports, highlighting Germany's significant role within the Eurozone economy.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for EUR, Bullish for German Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for EUR, Bearish for German Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the ‘Actual’ value differs enough from the forecast or if the ‘Previous’ value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the ‘Actual’ deviates from the forecast or there’s a notable revision to the ‘Previous’ value.

Medium Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there’s an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency.

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Dec 02, 2024	43	43.2	43	-0.2
Nov 04, 2024	43	42.6	40.6	0.4
Oct 01, 2024	40.6	40.3	42.4	0.3
Sep 02, 2024	42.4	42.1	43.2	0.3
Aug 01, 2024	43.2	42.6	43.5	0.6
Jul 01, 2024	43.5	43.4	45.4	0.1
Jun 03, 2024	45.4	45.4	42.5
May 02, 2024	42.5	42.2	41.9	0.3
Apr 02, 2024	41.9	41.6	42.5	0.3
Mar 01, 2024	42.5	42.3	45.5	0.2
Feb 01, 2024	45.5	45.4	43.3	0.1
Jan 02, 2024	43.3	43.1	42.6	0.2
Dec 01, 2023	42.6	42.3	40.8	0.3
Nov 02, 2023	40.8	40.7	39.6	0.1
Oct 02, 2023	39.6	39.8	39.1	-0.2
Sep 01, 2023	39.1	39.1	38.8
Aug 01, 2023	38.8	38.8	40.6
Jul 03, 2023	40.6	41	43.2	-0.4
Jun 01, 2023	43.2	42.9	44.5	0.3
May 02, 2023	44.5	44	44.7	0.5