France HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Latest Release:

Surprise:

EUR-0.1

EUR

Actual:

43.1

Forecast: 43.2

Previous/Revision:

44.5

Period: Dec 2024

Next Release:

Forecast: 41.9

Period: Jan 2025

What Does It Measure?

The HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final for France measures the performance and activity level within the country's manufacturing sector, focusing on key areas like production, new orders, employment, and supplier delivery times. This national indicator uses a score above 50 to denote expansion and below 50 to indicate contraction in the manufacturing sector.

Frequency

The Manufacturing PMI Final is released monthly, typically toward the beginning of the following month, as a revised figure from earlier flash estimates.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the Manufacturing PMI as it offers timely insights into the economic health of the manufacturing sector, which can significantly affect broader economic growth. Stronger-than-expected readings are bullish for the Euro and equities, reflecting increased economic activity, while weaker figures tend to have bearish implications.

What Is It Derived From?

The Manufacturing PMI is derived from surveys conducted with purchasing managers across the manufacturing sector, evaluating variables like output, new orders, and inventory levels. This data is aggregated into a single index using a weighted method that conforms to industry standards established for diffusion indices.

Description

The HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final measures the more definitive state of manufacturing activity as opposed to the preliminary estimates, which can often contain inaccuracies due to limited data collection. Preliminary data are based on initial surveys and are subject to revisions upon receipt of complete responses, making the final release a more accurate economic assessment. Financial markets often react more aggressively to preliminary results because of their immediacy, but adjustments typically occur when final figures provide a clearer picture of the manufacturing sector's health.

Additional Notes

The HCOB Manufacturing PMI serves as a leading economic measure, providing early indications of economic trends before official industrial production and GDP data are released. Its comparisons with similar indicators in other Eurozone countries can help assess regional economic disparities and contribute to a broader understanding of Eurozone market dynamics.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for Euro, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for Euro, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the ‘Actual’ value differs enough from the forecast or if the ‘Previous’ value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the ‘Actual’ deviates from the forecast or there’s a notable revision to the ‘Previous’ value.

Medium Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there’s an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency.

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Dec 02, 2024	43.1	43.2	44.5	-0.1
Nov 04, 2024	44.5	44.5	44.6
Oct 01, 2024	44.6	44	43.9	0.6
Sep 02, 2024	43.9	42.1	44	1.8
Aug 01, 2024	44	44.1	45.4	-0.1
Jul 01, 2024	45.4	45.3	46.4	0.1
Jun 03, 2024	46.4	46.7	45.3	-0.3
May 02, 2024	45.3	44.9	46.2	0.4
Apr 02, 2024	46.2	45.8	47.1	0.4
Mar 01, 2024	47.1	46.8	43.1	0.3
Feb 01, 2024	43.1	43.2	42.1	-0.1
Jan 02, 2024	42.1	42	42.9	0.1
Dec 01, 2023	42.9	42.6	42.8	0.3
Nov 02, 2023	42.8	42.6	44.2	0.2
Oct 02, 2023	44.2	43.6	46	0.6
Sep 01, 2023	46	46.4	45.1	-0.4
Aug 01, 2023	45.1	44.5	46	0.6
Jul 03, 2023	46	45.5	45.7	0.5
Jun 01, 2023	45.7	46.1	45.6	-0.4
May 02, 2023	45.6	45.5	47.3	0.1