Italy HCOB Services PMI

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Latest Release:

Big Surprise:

EUR-2

EUR

Actual:

49.2

Forecast: 51.2

Previous/Revision:

52.4

Period: Dec 2024

Next Release:

Forecast: 50.3

Period: Jan 2025

What Does It Measure?

The Italy HCOB Services PMI measures the economic performance of Italy's services sector by assessing business conditions and activity levels among service providers. It focuses on key indicators like new business activity, employment, and business expectations, using a diffusion index where values above 50 indicate expansion, and below 50 indicate contraction in the sector, and it is a national indicator.

Frequency

The Italy HCOB Services PMI is released monthly as a preliminary estimate in the first few business days of the month.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the Italy HCOB Services PMI as it reflects the health of a significant portion of the country's economy and influences financial markets. A higher-than-expected PMI can be bullish for the Euro and Italian equities, signaling economic expansion, while a lower reading can have bearish implications.

What Is It Derived From?

The Italy HCOB Services PMI is derived from a survey of service sector purchasing managers who provide insights into various business metrics. Data collection follows a standard methodology involving weighting responses in a diffusion index format to calculate overall sector performance.

Description

This indicator seeks to provide a timely snapshot of the service sector, which is critical given its substantial contribution to Italy's GDP. Preliminary readings, based on early estimates, offer quick insights but are prone to revision, whereas final data is more accurate, given its later release. Markets tend to react more to preliminary figures due to their timeliness in reflecting current economic conditions, although final figures may still adjust market sentiment.

Additional Notes

The HCOB Services PMI is considered a leading indicator as it can predict future economic activity based on current service sector trends. It is also compared internationally with other service PMIs for a broader understanding of the global services economy.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for Euro, Bullish for Italian Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for Euro, Bearish for Italian Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the ‘Actual’ value differs enough from the forecast or if the ‘Previous’ value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the ‘Actual’ deviates from the forecast or there’s a notable revision to the ‘Previous’ value.

Medium Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there’s an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency.

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Dec 04, 2024	49.2	51.2	52.4	-2
Nov 06, 2024	52.4	50.5	50.5	1.9
Oct 03, 2024	50.5	51	51.4	-0.5
Sep 04, 2024	51.4	52.6	51.7	-1.2
Aug 05, 2024	51.7	52.9	53.7	-1.2
Jul 03, 2024	53.7	53.7	54.2
Jun 05, 2024	54.2	54.4	54.3	-0.2
May 06, 2024	54.3	54.7	54.6	-0.4
Apr 04, 2024	54.6	53.2	52.2	1.4
Mar 05, 2024	52.2	52.3	51.2	-0.1
Feb 05, 2024	51.2	50.8	49.8	0.4
Jan 04, 2024	49.8	49.8	49.5
Dec 05, 2023	49.5	48.2	47.7	1.3
Nov 06, 2023	47.7	48.5	49.9	-0.8
Oct 04, 2023	49.9	50	49.8	-0.1
Sep 05, 2023	49.8	50.5	51.5	-0.7
Aug 03, 2023	51.5	52.2	52.2	-0.7
Jul 05, 2023	52.2	53	54	-0.8
Jun 05, 2023	54	57	57.6	-3
May 04, 2023	57.6	56.5	55.7	1.1