Australia Ai Group Manufacturing Index

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Latest Release:

Big Surprise:

AUD-20.7

Actual:

-29.7

Forecast: -9

Previous/Revision:

-8.2

Period: Apr 2025

Next Release:

Forecast: -32

Period: May 2025

What Does It Measure?

The Australia Ai Group Manufacturing Index measures the performance of the manufacturing sector in Australia. Its primary focus is on assessing production levels, new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries to determine the growth or contraction in the manufacturing industry, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion and below 50 indicating contraction. This is a national indicator specific to Australia.

Frequency

The Australia Ai Group Manufacturing Index is released monthly, typically on the first business day of each month, and it does not have preliminary or final versions.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor this index because it indicates the economic health of the manufacturing sector, which is a major component of the Australian economy. Positive or above-expected readings are bullish for the Australian dollar (AUD) and equities, as they suggest economic expansion, while weaker readings could lead to bearish market reactions.

What Is It Derived From?

The index is derived from a survey of purchasing managers across the Australian manufacturing sector, using diffusion index methodology. Respondents provide insights into various business conditions, which are then weighted and compiled to produce the overall index score.

Description

The Australia Ai Group Manufacturing Index offers a qualitative overview of business conditions in Australia's manufacturing sector by aggregating purchasing managers' responses on new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries, and employment. It doesn't have distinct preliminary and final versions, meaning there is no revision process involved as the data represents a direct snapshot of the period's performance. The survey's results provide immediate feedback on sector health, and as a month-over-month (MoM) measure, it emphasizes short-term changes in industry activity and detects sudden shifts in economic momentum, making it highly valuable for early insights.

Additional Notes

This index is considered a leading economic indicator, providing early signals of the economic direction due to its forward-looking nature from surveyed responses. Its results can be compared to other global manufacturing indices to understand broader trends and assess Australia’s economic performance relative to other regions.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for AUD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for AUD, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the ‘Actual’ value differs enough from the forecast or if the ‘Previous’ value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the ‘Actual’ deviates from the forecast or there’s a notable revision to the ‘Previous’ value.

Medium Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there’s an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency.

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Apr 01, 2025	-29.7	-9	-8.2	-20.7
Mar 04, 2025	-8.2	-26	-22.7	17.8
Feb 04, 2025	-22.7	-16	-17.9	-6.7
Dec 03, 2024	-17.9	-17	-19.7	-0.9
Nov 05, 2024	-19.7	-27	-33.6	7.3
Oct 01, 2024	-33.6	-13	-30.8	-20.6
Sep 03, 2024	-30.8	-17.3	-19.5	-13.5
Aug 06, 2024	-19.5	-20	-26.5	0.5
Jul 02, 2024	-26.5	-20	-31.1	-6.5
Jun 04, 2024	-31.1	-9	-13.9	-22.1
Apr 30, 2024	-13.9	-6	-7	-7.9
Apr 02, 2024	-7	-14	-12.6	7
Mar 05, 2024	-12.6	-19	-23.8	6.4
Feb 06, 2024	-23.8	-27	-25.3	3.2
Dec 05, 2023	-25.3	-18	-20.9	-7.3
Oct 31, 2023	-20.9	-14	-12.8	-6.9
Oct 03, 2023	-12.8	-16	-19.8	3.2
Sep 06, 2023	-19.8	-28	-25.6	8.2
Aug 01, 2023	-25.6	-22	-19.8	-3.6
Jul 04, 2023	-19.8	-6	-5.1	-13.8
Jun 06, 2023	-5.1	-24	-20.2	18.9
May 02, 2023	-20.2	2	5.6	-22.2
Apr 04, 2023	5.6	-4	-6.3	9.6